Ethiopia: The Tragedy of a Country That Cannot Afford Peace
By Prof. Habtamu Bihonilign

In a recent telephone conversation with a trusted friend whose informed
opinion I highly value the issue of the on-going efforts at securing
peace between Ethiopia and Eritrea came up. My friend, out of character from
his usually subdued, reflective, and academic responses let his
disappointment all hung out. He encapsulated his reaction, borne of growing
disappointment and disillusionment, by simply saying, "The TPLF? Peace?…
and I have a bridge to sell you in Brooklyn!" That statement has grabbed me 
by the collar and forced me to take a serious look at what has transpired since June 13,
1998, a date, to use F. D. Roosevelt's famous line, which will live in infamy.

We have all been grappling with what went wrong and where ever since
this calamitous situation has been visited upon our peoples. With each new
and important piece of information that I come across, my views have
undergone gradual but definite metamorphosis. This is especially true with regard
to the most recent development that seemed to have finally given this
seemingly hopeless situation a glimmer of hope. I keep asking myself, "Will peace
be finally achieved now?" Before its demise is announced officially, let
me break it to you. I am afraid peace has eluded us once again.
Once the early frenzied war hysteria the TPLF regime let loose in
Ethiopia fifteen months ago subsided, and the inevitable reality of war threw
cold water in the face of a seemingly sleep walking nation, peace has now
become the most priceless commodity Ethiopians wish more than anything else.
The war with Eritrea has compounded the already difficult life they have led
in my own lifetime. Alas, Ethiopians have come to realize that the very
survival of Ethiopia as a unified country hinges on peace. Oddly
enough, for the minority regime that has ruled Ethiopia with iron-fist,
deception and terror, 'peace' has come to represent the most dreaded sort 
of thing it has ever faced in the past eight years. It knows not what to do with
it. There should be no surprise here for the rulers and the ruled have never really
marched in lockstep.

All the charade about the TPLF regime's acceptance of the OAU Framework
Agreement and the subsequent Modalities for the Implementation of the
Agreement aside, one point is clear. And that is, every step those who
claim to represent Ethiopia have taken since the beginning of the
conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea can only lead any thinking human being to
one, and only one conclusion. Peace is not in their interest. They have
nothing to gain by it, and everything to loose. Today more than ever, the
regime finds itself in the least tenable situation - a catch-22 syndrome, if
you will. I say this because, having weighed everything that has gone on to
date, I could find no credible reason why the TPLF would opt for peace.
In the natural order of things where the instinctive thing to do is circling
the wagon, I realize that many of my conclusions about the present state
of affairs in Ethiopia might not be so popular. It is bound to rub many a
soul the wrong way. Encouraged by the official media, misplaced patriotism
and nationalism is what is in vogue. But, it is high time that somebody
stands up and shouts, "the king has no clothes on." Why do I believe Meles &
company doesn't have any stake in peace? The following are some of my
reasons.

1. The TPLF has already told Ethiopians too many lies: it can't face the
light of day now. Fifteen months after the outbreak of the conflict we now 
know that the war has very little to do with disputes associated with any border. 
Badme was only a stalking-horse, a ruse. The fundamental problem between the 
TPLF and Eritrea is the former's as yet fully unrealized ambition of carving out
Greater Tigrai at the expense of Eritrea and the people of the rest of
Ethiopia. The Woyane regime did "achieve" the first phase of its
long-held dream of Greater Tigrai at the time it recklessly Balkanized Ethiopia
into a patchwork of Ethnic cantons, radically changing the administrative
configuration of the nation. In the process, this minority regime was
able to carve choice lands adjoining Tigrai, i.e., from Wollo, and Gonder and
included them within Tigrai proper. Furthermore, using that old and
worn-out method of divide et empera, a method that all minority regimes
attempting to rule over a nation much larger than themselves have
historically utilized, the TPLF has fragmented the country much as the
apartheid regime in South Africa did. Anyone who knows anything about the 
TPLF regime's dogma since its creation knows that the "uniting" of all Tigrinya 
speaking people into the Greater Tigrai orbit to be ruled by them has been the 
centerpiece of their bizarre and eclectic "ethno-marxist" ideology. At the very heart 
of the conflict was, therefore, the furtherance of this design of the TPLF. In May 1999
the Woyane regime thought that it had pacified the rest of Ethiopia enough
that it could proceed with the second phase of its "Greater Tigrai"
program. It is for the implementation of this scheme that the TPLF regime picked a
fight with Eritrea seriously miscalculating both its own ability, rather lack
thereof, and Eritrea's resolve. To the regime's ideologues, Eritrea was
there just waiting for the picking. No sooner than it embarked on the anti-Eritrean 
campaign, the regime began to whip-up traditional Ethiopian patriotism, patriotism it had
previously associated with what it called "Amhara-chauvenists." It is almost
comical to see when this very same people, who were fond of deriding the
Ethiopian flag as nothing more than a "piece of rag", now shamelessly shrouding
themselves with it. How is one to explain the regime's newfound
patriotism and claims of "Ethiopia's 3000 year of proud history" when we all know
that it made a sport of ridiculing the very notion until the eve of the
conflict. What Ethiopian will forget their deafening howling of the "great Amhara
myth," and their claim that Ethiopia had a history of only 100 years?

The truth is bound to finish off the Woyane regime A key element of the OAU Framework
Agreement is that an investigation would be conducted into the events prior to May 6, 1998
to establish culpability for instigating the conflict. If peace comes, The TPLF would then have
to explain its series of calculated and provocative acts prior to the above
events. The claims of Eritrea that Woyane operatives "murdered in cold
blood unarmed Eritrean border patrols approaching them to discuss tension in
the area" on the above date may after all have validity. This was supposedly
the event that triggered the conflict. The TPLF would have to explain its
military occupation at Adi Murug a year earlier which was supposedly
officially undertaken in "a hot pursuit" of some Ethiopian Afari armed
opposition group. The TPLF has to explain why and on what basis it
unilaterally redrew a new map of Tigrai in 1997, making serious
alterations to the preexistent map. 

The key question is who started the war? The only  answer the whole world
can attest to is that it was the Ethiopian rubber stamp "parliament"
that hastily declared war while the Eritrean cabinet soon after countered by
putting forth what in all fairness could be termed as specific, fair and
detailed proposals to end the conflict. The regime followed this
declaration with similarly bizarre actions and did it in a dizzying pace. But
because the TPLF regime was bent on war in pursuit of the above-mentioned
scheme, it put one hurdle after another to make sure that peace did not stand in
the way of their scheme. The most ridiculous demand was that Eritrea
withdrew unconditionally and unilaterally from territories the TPLF regime
steadfastly refused to specify. Once war started, the bombing of Mekele by the Eritrean
Air Force in which innocent children were killed has effectively been used by TPLF to
arouse public indignation. To this day, the people of Ethiopia are being
bombarded by a propaganda line that claims Eritrea's action to have been
deliberate and unprovoked. As sad an event as the death of the children was, the
cumulative evidence now seems to clearly indicate, that the TPLF sent
fighter planes, and bombed Asmara first; that the action of the
Eritreans was purely retaliatory; and the killing of the children accidental. 

The TPLF regime, of course, conveniently avoids any mention of Eritrea's
prompt apology for the unfortunate incident. If peace were to be signed, the 
TPLF would have to explain to the people of Ethiopia its extravagant and false claims
of military victory. Following the battle for Badime in February 1999, the regime's inept
mouthpiece, w/o Selome Tadesse, in her characteristic mix of lies and braggadocio had
unabashedly told the Ethiopian people and the entire world that "two
thirds of the Eritrean fighting capacity had been vanquished. She shamelessly
told the world that all that remained was a mopping up operation." Some
"mopping up!" Of course, we now know that all the hullabaloo and the celebration
was a trifle premature. Critical pieces of evidence have since brought to
light of the carnage Ethiopia suffered at Badime. The TPLF would have to
explain why they were unable to retrieve any of the land they claim Eritrea to
have invaded if they had achieved such a military feat. It is obvious to any
half-witted observer that Meles & co. are no closer today to achieving
whatever it was they set out to accomplish than on the day they declared
war and sacrificed so many people and Ethiopia's meager resources.
The only way the regime can prolong its hold on power is by making sure
that the truth would never come out. And the achievement of peace will
surely expose these leaders, if further exposure is needed, to their true
color.

2. The Regime had promised the Ethiopian People more than it could
deliver. If the war supposedly started as a result of a border conflict, what 
the local media focused upon from the very outset has been something
entirely different. In the first several months after the conflict broke out, the
most familiar refrain on Radio Woyane in Mekele was this: "Eritrea has
3.5 million people and two ports. Ethiopia, on the other hand, has 60
million people and no port. Why, then, can't Ethiopia take one?" The
implication of this rhetorical question is quite clear. It shows beyond a shadow of
doubt, the very minimum objective was never the return of that village
of Badime, but rather the "return" of Assab. This point was clearly
underscored when Dr. Alemu Tekeda, the Deputy Foreign Minister announced
to a cheering crowd in Washington D.C., "You will soon hear good news.
Ethiopia will have its own port." Well now, how is the TPLF regime
going to explain its debacle in that attempt too?

3. When the TPLF discovered that its quest for Assab was easier said than
done, in a typical Woyane fashion of getting mired in an incoherent policy, it
shifted its tack and told the Ethiopian people that for peace to be
achieved the sha'bia regime in Asmara would have to be toppled. It planned to
install a "play-dough" puppet regime. Laughably, the TPLF has shown no
promise here either.

4. Ethiopia has benefited nothing from all the precipitous actions
Meles & co. has undertaken. The week the government announced the 
purported invasion  of Ethiopia by Eritrea with great uproar, I, as many 
Ethiopians, was befuddled by all that the announcement entailed. Strangely, 
instead of trying to diffuse the situation, the regime followed up its announcement
by a shrill diplomacy of ultimatum, and a barrage of actions I thought were quite
out of sync, to say the least.

What were the TPLF leaders thinking when they so abruptly announced that
Ethiopia would henceforth boycott the use of the ports of Massawa and
Assab? What did Massawa and Assab have to do with Badime? Did these people
really think that they could bring Eritrea down to its knees by such a
boycott? In fact what the TPLF regime did by this strange action was
scrapping at one fell swoop Ethiopia's well-established doctrine of
"outlet-to-the sea" which it had carefully crafted since immediately
following World War II. The doctrine, it goes without saying, had served

Ethiopia well until the day the present rulers of Ethiopia trashed it
with little foresight and understanding of its implications.
What were the essential points of the doctrine? In a memorandum
presented by the Imperial Ethiopian Government to the Council of Foreign
Ministers in 1945, Ethiopia had declared the great importance Massawa and 
Assab held to her as follows, "Today [1945], the port of Massawa is of the 
greatest  importance for the economic life of Ethiopia. It is through it alone 
that the four great and densely populated provinces of Tigre, Gonder, Wollo
and Gojam  can be supplied with their needs for imported goods, and it is 
the only port through which their exports of hides, coffee and other agricultural
products can find an outlet to the sea. In fact, the prosperity and very
economic life of the whole northern half of Ethiopia depend entirely upon free
access to the sea for its produce through Massawa and Assab."
The vicissitudes of politics might have changed, but the reality of
geography has not. What is more, Ethiopia stated the above clear and
unambiguous doctrine to the powers to be while at the same time it had
access to the port of Djibouti. Ethiopia did this fully realizing that
Djibouti did in fact play a key role, albeit secondary. The new claim
that "Djibouti is Ethiopia's natural outlet to the sea" is, therefore, only
half-true and half a case of sour-grape.

The same people, who today tell Ethiopians that Massawa and Assab are
inferior ports anyway, and too expensive to boot, with the same
flippancy that has become their trademark, have a great deal of explaining to do.
They are the very same characters who had been trying to convince us
that Ethiopia had lost nothing by Eritrea's independence since Eritrea had
made the unimpeded use of Assab and Massawa by Ethiopia its top priority.
They were in the habit of lauding the various so-called mutually beneficial
agreements, the memoranda of understandings, etc. that were being signed
between the two countries. I am aghast when looking at the glowing
remarks these same leaders were making not too long before the outbreak of
hostilities about the great quality and superior services Ethiopia
enjoyed at Assab and Massawa. Logic 101 tells us that two contradictory
statements cannot be both true at the same time. Now, the TPLF would 
Have to explain which "fact" is the "truth" and which is a lie.
If peace is achieved, then the Woyane leaders would have to either
persist in the boycott, much to the detriment of Tigrai and "the entire northern
half of Ethiopia," or they would have to go back to Eritrea in the
penitent's ashes and sack clothes. They would nevertheless have to
explain to the people of Ethiopia why they undertook such a dangerous and
self-defeating gamble in the first place.

What I find even more perplexing about the TPLF regime's lack of
farsightedness was its raising of the ante by discontinuing all flights
to and from Eritrea by the Ethiopian Airlines, Eritrea's major flyer at the
time. When one considers that the Addis Ababa-Asmara route was EAL's
most profitable line, one would have to wonder about the motive of such an
irrational action. Was this supposed to be the TPLF's ace in the hole,
the silver bullet, if you will? Again, the ever-elusive goal of the regime
was to bring pressure to bear on Eritrea - bring it to its knees in the
shortest time possible.

Now, fifteen months later, what has the result of EAL's boycott been?
Except for a few days of inconvenience for Eritrea, all the profitable
services of the Ethiopian Airlines have been taken over by an
ever-expanding list of competitors such as Lufthansa, Egypt Air, Saudi Air,
and Yemen Air. What is more, the action goaded Eritrea to seek internal and
external investors into launching its own small airline, Red Sea Air, with a
growing fleet. According to some reliable sources within the Ethiopian Airlines,
Ethiopia is said to have lost business amounting to the tune of
$600million a year. If and when peace is achieved, and it will sooner or later, 
and by hoo or by crook, the TPLF government would have to explain this too.
Doesn't it then make sense for them to just avoid peace altogether?

5. The expulsion of ethnic Eritreans and the issue of compensation
If one were to turn the pages of Ethiopian history to honestly look at
all the injustices we have perpetrated on the people of Eritrea we can
perhaps understand our own frailty and past failings. We will discover that we
are, as any other, people with many skeletons in our closet.
I have often considered Eritreans magnanimous for not going back to past
injustices they had suffered and make a career out of nursing old
wounds.

Let me mention only a couple here. Our own Ethiopian historian Ato
Tecletsadik Mekuria in his book entitled 'Atse Menelik'na yeityopya
andenet' tells us of our gruesome past, a past we can't possibly be proud of.
Following the battle of Adowa, Ethiopia had many Italian and Eritrean
POWs in her hands. While the European POWs were treated so well, the cruel
and inhumane "punishment" meted out against the Eritrean POWs is something
that  defies all common decency. Egged on by the likes of Ras Mengesha, Alula,
Abune Matewos, et al, Menelik had the right hand and left foot of all
1,200 Eritreans hacked off. Those who survived this indescribable horror
crawled back to Eritrea. This happened only two days after the battle was over
and in the heat of passions - perhaps a lesson the TPLF should have learned
for a not-so- well-thought out, spur-of-a-moment actions.
Ethiopians know very little about the countless atrocities committed in
Eritrea by the Derg in the more recent memory. Again, it is a credit to
Eritreans that they have not rushed to put up memorial 'hawlt" at every
site of mass murder and mass grave in Eritrea. Contrast this to what the
TPLF seems to be in the habit of doing to remind whomever they considered
their enemy (which is much of Ethiopians) of one thing, "Look what you had
done to us. Therefore, don't complain about anything we are doing to you now!"
I have never heard Eritreans harping about the horrible role Tigrayans
played in the cities and towns of Eritrea in the 1970s and 1980s.
Tigrayan residents in Eritrea ran all the kebeles as Eritreans showed no
inclination or interest in serving the Derg. It was these Tigrayans who served as
dutiful hatchet men in the regime's security apparatus there.
Consequently, countless Eritreans were imprisoned, tortured and killed by the
Tigrayans who lived in the midst of Eritreans. The Tigrayans knew the
language and culture so well, and they so eagerly used their familiarity with
the Eritrean society to commit so much atrocity.

The TPLF regime has made a conscious decision to use the regrettable
incident at Mekele for its own political end and to promote hatred and
revenge. It will add a useful perspective to recall another similar
incident that took place in 1990, admittedly incomparably greater in its
extent. After the EPLF captured Massawa in a stunning military victory,
the Ethiopian air force unleashed a senseless blanket bombardment of that
beautiful city into what one observer compared to the complete
destruction of the city of Dresden in the final days of WWII by the allied air.
The world media showed with horror as hundreds of children, old men and
women were buried under the rubble in Massawa. Strangely enough, what 
I find quite amazing about the wanton destruction of Massawa is not that
Ethiopia committed this unspeakable act simply out of spite, but the noble
reaction of Eritreans. Today, when they speak of Massawa's ruin, Eritreans do
not focus on what was "done to them," but how they have miraculously rebuilt
and transformed the city to its glorious past, the pearl of the Red Sea, and
much more. Only those who have seen the city recently will appreciate
this statement. Compare this with the reaction of the TPLF to the sad
incidents at Howzien and Mekele. They used it to promote hatred and a 
sense of a need for vengeance.

None of what Eritreans have historically suffered in the hands of
successive Ethiopian regimes, however, would come close to their present and
on-going massive arrest, confiscation of property, and mass-expulsion out
of this country they have often called their home for generations. This
unprecedented and diabolical act augurs bad omen for Ethiopia.
For months after the beginning of this practice, many of us were willing
to sit back and regurgitate the official propaganda line of the Ethiopian
government. "Well," goes the innocent-sounding apology, "Isn't Eritrea
doing exactly the same thing? Eritrea, it was reported, did "expel"
30,000 Ethiopians out of Assab. It sounded so true at the time. The truth
was, however, much less complex than that.
The majority of the population of Assab was Ethiopian. The port was
Eritrean only in name, since the port essentially served Ethiopia's
needs. The large numbers of workers at the port, as were the shopkeepers and
traders, were Ethiopians. In fact, four of the schools at Assab used
Ethiopian curriculum and were staffed by some eighty Ethiopian teachers.

The minute Ethiopia boycotted the port, therefore, the initial victim
was not Eritrea, but the tens of thousands of Ethiopians who had lived and
worked in Assab. Since they were deprived of their means of livelihood
by Ethiopia's unexpected action, many became destitute and chose to go back
to Ethiopia. These, the TPLF regime orchestrated as "expellees", and we,
blinded by our own prejudices and hatred, lapped up whatever the TPLF
propaganda machine threw our way.

Now, fifteen months have passed. We know the facts, indisputable and
unadulterated facts. Let us for a moment put aside the propaganda line
of Meles & co. and examine what is independently confirmed. The most
recent Amnesty International report on the situation is the most damning piece
of evidence. It clearly states that there is no reciprocal action on the
part of Eritrea, and that there is no official campaign of harassment or
expulsion by the Eritrean government. This conclusion was clearly
corroborated by many other independent sources, such as, the Klein
Report, the reports of the representatives of the UNDP, and the European Union.
The statements by US State Department and that of Mary Robinson of the UN
Council on Human Rights were not made out of the blue and without
investigation of the facts either. Perhaps the most up to date and the
most scientific study of this human tragedy is the one compiled by none other
than the eminent Prof. A. Legesse. In his report - "The Uprooted" - we
can readily see how low we have been brought as a people.
This unprecedented action by those who rule Ethiopia against innocent
citizens to me raises Hemingway's singular alarm bell - "For whom the
bell tolls…" Or, in the words of Atse Haile Selassie spoken at the League of
Nations 65 years ago, "Today it is us, tomorrow it will be you." Yes,
it is Eritreans today, but who will be next in line?
By what we have done to Eritreans, the dreaded ethnic genie of the
Balkans is already out of the bottle in Ethiopia. No one could possibly put it
back in. Everywhere you go in Ethiopia, "Get out of our kilil" has already
become an oft-heard clarion call.

If peace returns, Eritrea will, as surely as day follows night, demand
that Eritreans whose property was confiscated be compensated. President
Afeworki's recent remarks on his most recent tour of the US makes this
clear. The documentation for such redress, I am quite sure, is well
underway. Eritrea has already intimated that it will bring the matter
before the International Court of Justice. Ethiopia, with over 5
million of its citizens on the verge of massive starvation, is in no position to
pay back hundreds of millions of dollars. You can't squeeze blood out of a
turnip. What is more, too many people have benefited from the
misfortune of Eritreans who were expelled. Much of the property is distributed
among TPLF's own cadres. Do you think these people would be willing to
relinquish their newfound wealth? I don't think so. That's why the TPLF, from the
top echelon down to the bottom, would rather see the war continue than face
the indignity of giving up what they have taken by force and treachery.

6. Ethiopia has lost too many lives, and absolutely nothing to show for
it. If you don't agree with anything I have said so far, this is, I hope,
where we can't possibly have any disagreement: Ethiopia has lost too many of
her sons in this war waged only to further the narrow interests of those who
rule Ethiopia. Forget foreign journalists, but why do you think that
the Ethiopian press itself is effectively barred from covering the war? Why
aren't even members of the-rubber-stamp parliament allowed from setting
foot in Tigrai? If no other site, why did the Ethiopian government at least
not show Badime? Worse yet, why are the men in the Ethiopian armed forces in
the trenches of Tigrai held in absolute incommunicado? The answer is clear
as day. The TPLF leaders do not want the truth to come out. And should
peace come these same leaders would be forced to do much explaining to the
widowed wives, the orphaned children, and the grieving mothers and fathers.

The utter incompetence of those who rule over Ethiopia today is clearly
seen by their anachronistic military thinking and strategy, the foolishness
of which has astounded the world. The carnage Ethiopia suffered at Badime
for questionable "gain", the gruesome picture of the thousands who were
slaughtered at Tsorona and other fronts is already well known for all
but those whose head is still buried in the sand. 

It would be instructive here to reckon back to the days of the Tigrai
people's struggle and how these same people conducted themselves in
1991. As the loved ones of those who joined the struggle anticipated the fate
of their young children who left home to fight, the TPLF dashed their hope
by giving them no news. The TPLF simply told the people of Tigrai, "If
your children haven't come back, just forget about them. It means that they
have died." I am afraid that many a loved one in this sad country of ours
will soon be told exactly the same thing.

The TPLF regime which finds it self between the Scylla of the sure wrath
of the Ethiopian people when peace is restored and all the truth comes
out, and the Charybdis of continuing this stupid war, all the indications
they have given us so far lead to only one conclusion. As destructive as the
war may be, they see no future for themselves in a peaceful Ethiopia. They
will, therefore, continue on their self-destructive path.

7. Conclusion
It takes only guns to rule. But it takes statesmanship to lead a
country of any size and description. It takes an extraordinary statesmanship to
particularly lead a country as vast, complex, diverse, and backward as
that of our own. And, unfortunately for Ethiopia, a dearth of statesmen is
her historic woe. Ethiopia endured seventeen years of war and destruction with the
Dergue's foolhardy motto of: "There ain't no horse that can't be rode; there
ain't no man that can't be throwed." For the present leaders, as for the Dergue,
the poor of Ethiopia who are conscripted into the army by force have been
treated as something akin to a disposable item. I cringe when I hear
people like Gebru Asrat make incredible statements that, "This war will
continue for generations." It is déjà vu all over again when a leader sees the
future only in such a distorted prism, and proclaims to a nation,
"Regardless of the sacrifices the war must continue!" One should be
cognizant that these same leaders who make such morbid remarks have
their children sent abroad to a life of luxury and opportunity. When they
talk about "sacrifices", therefore, it is the sons of the peasants and the
poor who have historically been used as cannon fodder that they are so eager
to sacrifice.

Peace? TPLF? I, for one, am not holding my breath. But where do we go
from here? It is, I believe, the historic duty of every patriotic Ethiopian
to stand united to save Ethiopia from itself and the path of inevitable
destruction, and even fragmentation under the present rulers. For
Ethiopia, Eritrea is not, nor has it ever been the problem; the TPLF is. We have
let the TPLF pull wool over our eyes for too long. We should see them for
who they are - enemy numero uno. Ethiopians cannot simply entrust the
future of the country to people who have shown little regard for it; people who
have given us enough reason to believe that they don't have concerns beyond
their own narrow ethnic preoccupations. We need to side step the TPLF and
look for true, genuine, and alternative peace. Let us start with facing the
truth, because only the truth will set us free.